The one conspiracy I believe is true

I recently read Reclaiming History, which is Vincent Bugliosi’s forceful book showing Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone when he shot President John F. Kennedy.[1] It’s just another conspiracy theory that proves to be false if examined carefully and with an eye to the evidence. A few years ago, I combed through the case of Teresa Halbach and concluded that the Manitowoc County Sheriff’s Department and the Calumet County District Attorney did not conspire to frame Steven Avery for that crime. I’ve also concluded that Shakespeare almost certainly wrote the plays and sonnets that bear his name. More recently I wrote about avoiding conspiracy theories with recent events.

But there is one conspiracy that I think is true. Here’s a summary from one of the early conspirators:

For I delivered to you as of first importance what I also received: that Christ died for our sins in accordance with the Scriptures, that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day in accordance with the Scriptures, and that he appeared to Cephas, then to the twelve. Then he appeared to more than five hundred brothers at one time, most of whom are still alive, though some have fallen asleep. Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles.—Paul of Tarsus, 1 Corinthians 15:3–7 (ESV)

Like many conspiracies, it starts small. After Jesus[2] was dead and buried, he appeared to Cephas, who was also known as Peter. You might well be suspicious of this since Peter was Jesus’ top disciple. You might be suspicious of “the twelve” too, since they were his closest followers.[3] But then we get to “more than five hundred brothers at one time”, which dramatically increases the number of people in the conspiracy. This is important because the larger a conspiracy gets, the more likely someone will reveal the secret.

According to a study by Dr David Robert Grimes of Oxford University:

For a plot to last five years, the maximum was 2521 people. To keep a scheme operating undetected for more than a decade, fewer than 1000 people can be involved. A century-long deception should ideally include fewer than 125 collaborators. Even a straightforward cover-up of a single event, requiring no more complex machinations than everyone keeping their mouth shut, is likely to be blown if more than 650 people are accomplices.

While it’s possible for more than 500 people to lie about seeing Jesus resurrected, the odds are good someone would have revealed the secret at some point in the decades that followed. This is doubly true since Paul was practically daring people to find these eye witnesses. His main point was to argue with the Corinthian Christians who were denying that people would be resurrected from the dead. Corinth was a cosmopolitan city that had ports on both the Ionian Sea and the Aegean Sea. So you can see why Christians might have downplayed the unbelievable and distinctly Jewish idea that people will someday come out of the grave and be alive again.

Paul wrote that if nobody experiences resurrection, than not even Jesus could rise again. And if Jesus didn’t rise from the dead, none of the things Christians believe mean anything.[4] That’s why he said, “some have fallen asleep” instead of “some have died”. Since he wrote circa 53–54 CE, that would be two decades after Jesus’ crucifixion so there were plenty of people who claimed to eyewitnesses still alive. Another decade on, the number would have been significantly smaller because people would have died naturally and because Romans under Nero began persecuting Christians, likely resulting in the death of both Paul and Peter.

This would have been a problem for Christianity because it was largely an oral tradition modeled on the practices of first century Judaism. As eyewitnesses died off, it became important to write down the stories. Perhaps the earliest biography of Jesus has come to us as the Gospel of Mark. Here’s how it ends:[5]

When the Sabbath was past, Mary Magdalene, Mary the mother of James, and Salome bought spices, so that they might go and anoint him. And very early on the first day of the week, when the sun had risen, they went to the tomb. And they were saying to one another, “Who will roll away the stone for us from the entrance of the tomb?” And looking up, they saw that the stone had been rolled back—it was very large. And entering the tomb, they saw a young man sitting on the right side, dressed in a white robe, and they were alarmed. And he said to them, “Do not be alarmed. You seek Jesus of Nazareth, who was crucified. He has risen; he is not here. See the place where they laid him. But go, tell his disciples and Peter that he is going before you to Galilee. There you will see him, just as he told you.” And they went out and fled from the tomb, for trembling and astonishment had seized them, and they said nothing to anyone, for they were afraid.—Mark 16:1–8 (ESV)

This is such an odd way to end the story that some scholars think the ending was lost. Originally the book would have been written on a scroll and if a reader left it with the ending on the outside[6] that might have been destroyed by fire or some other mishap. Other scholars speculate it was an authorial choice to allow an eyewitness of the resurrected Jesus to tell their story at the end of a public reading.

We know from the introduction to another biography, written by Luke, a gentile follower of Paul, that Christians were concerned with preserving eyewitness accounts in writing:

Inasmuch as many have undertaken to compile a narrative of the things that have been accomplished among us, just as those who from the beginning were eyewitnesses and ministers of the word have delivered them to us, it seemed good to me also, having followed all things closely for some time past, to write an orderly account for you, most excellent Theophilus, that you may have certainty concerning the things you have been taught.—Luke 1:1–4 (ESV)

In fact we have four separate accounts of the life, death and resurrection of Jesus, which are collectively called the Gospels. While Matthew and Luke borrowed Mark’s narrative structure, all four diverge when it comes to Jesus’ final week before his crucifixion. For instance, all four agree that a group of women initially discovered the empty tomb,[7] but disagree on who was there. Mark says it’s was a young man, Matthew says it was an angel, Luke says two angels, and John says nobody was there initially and only later when Mary Magdalene returned did she see two angels.

My point is there were a lot of stories going around about Jesus’ resurrection and it’s a bit strange the conspirators didn’t have a canonical story lined up. People tend to believe clear, simple and non-contradictory stories. For instance, Matthew records a counter-narrative from a failed conspiracy:

While they were going, behold, some of the guard went into the city and told the chief priests all that had taken place. And when they had assembled with the elders and taken counsel, they gave a sufficient sum of money to the soldiers and said, “Tell people, ‘His disciples came by night and stole him away while we were asleep.’ And if this comes to the governor’s ears, we will satisfy him and keep you out of trouble.” So they took the money and did as they were directed. And this story has been spread among the Jews to this day.—Matthew 28:11–-15 (ESV)

Jewish[8] and Roman authorities were suspicious of Christians because it was a popular movement with unclear aims and that’s always dangerous to established authority. The last person Paul mentions as a witness is James, the brother of Jesus. A Jewish historian writing in 93 or 94 CE recorded how James died in 62 CE:

Ananus, who, as we have told you already, took the high priesthood, was a bold man in his temper, and very insolent; he was also of the sect of the Sadducees, who are very rigid in judging offenders, above all the rest of the Jews, as we have already observed; when, therefore, Ananus was of this disposition, he thought he had now a proper opportunity [to exercise his authority]. Festus was now dead, and Albinus was but upon the road; so he assembled the Sanhedrin of judges, and brought before them the brother of Jesus, who was called Christ, whose name was James, and some others, [or, some of his companions]; and when he had formed an accusation against them as breakers of the law, he delivered them to be stoned.

It was dangerous to be in the conspiracy! Given our current religious tolerance, it’s hard to believe that people were killed because they claimed Jesus had risen from the dead. It’s not proof that he did rise, of course, but it’s strong evidence that his early followers believed he had risen.

One pleasant side effect of believing the Christian conspiracy is that it makes other conspiracies irrelevant. We ought to seek the truth and not worry so much about potential consequences. If Jesus did rise from the dead, we know how the story ends. God wins and evil is destroyed.


  1. And that Jack Ruby acted alone when he shot Oswald. ↩︎

  2. “Christ” is just a word that means “anointed”. In the Jewish context it signifies a priest or a king. The word is synonymous with “messiah”, which is the Hebrew word for “anointed”. The Hebrew Scriptures foretold a figure who was a king (from the line of David) a priest (from the line of Aaron) or both. Paul is saying Jesus was that anointed one. ↩︎

  3. Also, it would have been 11 since Judas had hung himself. And the 11 includes Peter. ↩︎

  4. “If in Christ we have hope in this life only, we are of all people most to be pitied.” —1 Corinthians 15:19 (ESV) ↩︎

  5. Modern Bibles often include a few more verses marked with brackets. Even a cursory reading of the text shows this passage was written by someone else. Most likely a scribe added a more satisfying ending. ↩︎

  6. Who knew that “Be kind. Rewind.” might have predated VCRs by two millennia? ↩︎

  7. This is an especially interesting detail since Paul didn’t mention them. Most likely he didn’t include them because women weren’t seen as reliable witnesses in ancient cultures. Given so many other witnesses, why confuse things with evidence the audience might not accept? But the more detailed biographies do include them because that’s what happened and it’s hard to tell the story without explaining the women came to the tomb first. ↩︎

  8. I should be clear here that Jesus and all his disciples were Jewish. The reason Christians were persecuted by Jews has nothing to do with later conspiracies. Josephus makes clear there were serious disagreements between Jewish people who had different attitudes to temple worship and the Roman occupation. ↩︎