Video interpretation

This post isn’t about game 7 of the 2025 World Series when the Blue Jays nearly won in the bottom of the 9th. With one out and the bases loaded, Daulton Varsho slapped a hot grounder to Miguel Rojas at second. After a quick glance over to Mookie Betts, who was too far off of second base to start a double play,[1] Rojas threw home in order to prevent Isiah Kiner-Falef from scoring the winning run. Will Smith recorded the forceout by a foot or so:

Or did he? From a different angle, lower and closer to the field, you can see his toe was just off the plate at that moment. It’s not entirely clear in this freeze frame, but in the video it’s obvious Smith had to jam his foot down to make contact with the plate. It was maybe an inch above the plate at this very moment and the runner was not yet out.

If you watch the first angle in motion, the toe tap is barely perceptible. It’s down right around here:

But now the question is whether Kiner-Falef’s foot had touched the plate. Was his foot an inch above the plate too? Back to the second angle and you can see he was churning up the dirt in front of the plate. So his foot was probably down, but had he reached the plate at that moment? I can’t tell because there is too much chalk in the air and the angle is wrong.

Fortunately there was one person with the perfect angle to see both feet and hear the ball slam into the catcher’s glove. The umpire had moved a yard or so out of his position behind the plate to get that angle and he made the only interpretation that matters. Out.

I found another angle, via Reddit, that shows the umpire’s angle, though he did block the camera’s view so we don’t see exactly what he did.

My favorite moment came next. Will Smith acknowledging Miguel Rojas’ great play and Rojas finally breathing out the stress. From pitch to release of tension 9 seconds had passed.

You can watch the whole sequence here:

Obviously the call went to replay for review and there wasn’t enough evidence to show the umpire was wrong. Two outs, game tied, bottom of the 9th, Ernie Clement at bat and this happened.

I’m a Dodgers fan and I still can’t believe the way this game ended. Even with all the camera angles available, we can only be sure the game wasn’t over the play before was because there was a professional and experienced umpire calling the play as he saw it.


  1. The defense was playing in to make sure they got the out at home to prevent the run. Rojas was going home no matter what and the glance did not cost him time on the throw. But if by some miracle Betts was on the bag, Rojas was ready to change his plan. ↩︎